The art and science of Japan’s cherry blossom forecasting

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In a bid to improve its forecasts, some outfits have started crowd-sourcing data, including Weathernews, a firm in Chiba near Tokyo. It relies on photos of buds sent in regularly by 10,000 citizens across the country who are registered on the company’s website and app.

Thanks to the project, Weathernews has accumulated data from two million reports on cherry flower buds in the past 15 years, which it uses to increase the accuracy of its forecasting. It also incorporates weather data collected from its own observation devices across Japan — 13,000 locations in total, 10 times more than the official weather agency has.

Weathernews employees also call around 700 parks regularly to check the growth of cherry flower buds. The company and other forecasters also employ mathematical models and algorithms.

Otenki Japan, a forecaster run by a subsidiary of precision-equipment manufacturer Shimadzu, even began using artificial intelligence to predict cherry blossoms in 2018.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency stopped forecasting cherry blossoms in 2010, after more than five decades, saying other organizations were now making predictions with sufficient accuracy. The agency does, however, still declare the official start of cherry blossom season by monitoring 58 so-called barometer trees.

The trees are at locations across the country, and the precise locations are considered a closely-guarded secret. One of them in Tokyo, however, is known to be at the Yasukuni Shrine.

From the beginning of March, inspectors visit the barometer trees once a day, with the trips increasing to twice daily as blossoming nears, Dojo said.

More Details from the source news from JT