Definition of “Overshoot” in Japan during Coronavirus pandemic

In Japan, after each day’s report, we hear that we are on the brink but still we cannot say it’s an “Overshoot” and it is still not “State of Emergency”. In this post, we cover what this overshoot means and how is it defined by the panel of experts.

An “Overshoot” as defined by the government panel tirelessly working on measure against Covid19 in the conference done 2 days back is as follows:

“Overshoot means an ‘explosive increase’ in the number of patients as seen in Europe and the United States. In terms of number it means the cumulative number doubles in 2 to 3 days and this speed occurs continuously.“ This is the core of this term.

(Refer the image below) If we see the simulation of infected people and the number of days it took to do so in Tokyo, you will see earlier it took

– 12 days for 32 people to 64 people to get infected,

– then 13 days from 64 to 128,

– took 6 days to reach 256,

– 5 days to reach 512 and

– as of yesterday we were at 891 in 4 days which is yet not double of 512 (1024 is double of 512).

If this number doubles in 2-3 days, then it can be called as Overshoot, according to the current understanding of the it’s definition In japan.

Example: Say in Tokyo today, the count is 891 people who are infected and these numbers reach 1782 in another 2-3 days, the the authorities will technically call it overshoot.

The logic is fine and the authorities are going as per the definition. But, the number of beds getting reduced is also a stark reality. The stress on the medical system is already showing a strain.

Yesterday, the authorities have asked patients with mild and weak symptoms either to hotels/home and preserve the hospital beds for only critical. Even the medical association has recommended the authorities to call it a state of emergency. It needs to be seen that when this happens and in what form will it happen. In a survey done in 2019, related to work reform situation in japan, it points that still 80% of businesses are not yet ready for remote work either because of infrastructure or because of traditional work style.

Different countries are taking different measures depending on what works in that nation. India has taken a stricter option which was right for India but Japan has taken a softer approach. But seems like time is running out now. PM Abe is also under pressure from various stakeholders.

Till the postponement of Tokyo Olympics was not announced, most of the citizens were under the impression that it’s everything normal in Japan. However developments after, authorities focus has shifted to covid19 as a core topic now. Since then the unprecedented fiscal package, specific instructions on what to avoid during Covid-19, asking schools to remain closed till 6th May, plan to distribute masks and passing of 3 lac finance support to people whose income got affected has taken place. Seems like preparations are done and moving ahead in near future can be the right time for a lockdown(a Japanese version of lockdown though)

Is this definition by authorities a good guideline to take future decisions? Should this itself be not revisited looking at the number of facility and staff which can fight on the ground against this invisible enemy?

Do share your theories, constructive solution and suggestions and share this with your family and friends so that they can make sense of why the things are happening the way they are in Japan.

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