Lockdown/State of Emergency – Japan Way !

Declaration of “State of Emergency” or “Lockdown” looks eminent now in Japan. But it won’t be a lockdown the way we have seen in other parts of world. It would be cooperation based in contrast to forceful enforcement.

Overall approach being finalized before the announcement :

Since the numbers of Tokyo infected people are growing, possibility of announcing “State of Emergency” on Tuesday(7th April) and applying from Tuesday(7th April) itself or Wednesday(8th April) in process
Duration : Minimum 4 weeks.
Place : Only Tokyo in not enough. Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Hyogo & Fukuoka Is included too.

Above is just an approach, exact details to be announced by PM Abe mostly tomorrow.

We need to understand this and have a right expectation from what will actually happen as a result of it and accordingly plan our own movement during these days.

Even after this emergency declaration the government has limited authority and can’t forcefully order everything to closedown. It can either Request, Advice or forcefully order to some specific areas only. This gives unprecedented rights to the people and their freedom in the country and will go as per exact words in the law & constitution. People have to rise to the occasion to make it successful.

Public Places – Government can “Request” people not to go out in public places without specific reasons. There will be a positive effect on this close down and number should decrease.
Cinema/Events – Request and issue advisory (near to give instructions) to close down. Stronger than request, hence this will also have positive impact.
Pharmacy/Health care – Government can order to close or keep open. Obviously they plan to order to keep it open.
Schools : Like point 2, they have bit more power and also them to close it
Business/Public Transport : This is most loose area where government has least say and has no right to tell them to close forcibly. It is left to their own decisions. Hence here is the area which has to be more active in implementing measure to avoid the spread to virus. If people travel away from house, they will travel through trains where the three conditions mentioned by the government are hard to implement. Moreover, if they go out, are most likely to eat their lunch and dinner outside. We see there are companies who have made work from home option in Japan but there are lot of them who either do not have facility to do so or can’t do it either due to tradition or data security policies or nature of the work itself which cannot be done at home. Suggest some creative ideas to them.
Groceries/Food/Life : Have power and will be asked to remain open. Banking Service will be opened. Also essential services along with Garbage disposal will also be working as normal. But authorities have asked to avoid hoarding and buy only what is necessary. Since this will be on supply chain & transport has to run and keep them going. Elderly care is also considered essential since this cannot be stopped because it will put the medical system under even more strain.

Out of scope for “Avoid going out”:

1. Going out to visit hospital/clinic (Avoid if not severe)

2. Going out for buying food items

3. Going out for work (if cannot be avoided or cannot wfh)

Only 3 conditions have to be kept in mind while deciding on movement

1. Avoid Crowded place and groups

2. Avoid badly ventilated places

3. Avoid Close pricing communication.

Follow above as a grown up and plan accordingly.

Why is this happening now ?

We can think of many possible reason about the problems at hand. Main reason being said is capacity overflow of beds, strain on healthcare system, increase in number of infected people and inability to serve more patients. Though obvious, to reduce this number has to come done with this measure is the logic he hind it.

■ Problems (including above)

Numbers : the count of infected people is increasing at a faster rate than in past in Tokyo and other hotspots
Unknown Sources : Increase in number of patients with “infection source unknown”. Percentage has increased from 50%+ to 80%+ in last few days in Tokyo. Since 24th March, the count has steeped suddenly and marked in red are count of infected people with unknown sources and blue are known. The count at the top of each tower is total of that day in Tokyo. Period before 24th is being referred as “Wave 1” which was successfully achieved whereas 24th onwards is the “Wave 2”, which is getting steeper and hence this extreme measure of “State of Emergency”. (Even though most of the other countries will still not consider severe)

Movement of people voluntarily not decreasing to the levels where the number of infected people can start decreasing
Test Numbers : People have questioned the count for tests also. But government has maintained this is as per WHO guidelines not to test people without symptoms. It is argued that few people, when approached for consultation, with symptoms were also turned off which later were detected with the virus.
ManPower : It’s not just man power and availability of staff and doctors
Amenities : Amenities like ventilators might feel a restraint but still manageable. If required ventilators marked for animal health (almost same as used for humans) with little pipe connector modification can be used.
Beds : Lot of Tokyo hotels have been approached for this and APA hotel and others have been shown positive response and help if the need arise. Tokyo will increased their bed capacity in hotels to 13,000 with this announcement formally.

It is also said that Government also took time during this period to prepare the fiscal plans & derailed plan to support people/business who are already impacted by this pandemic or will be impacted during the future lockdown. As one time support, fiscal package will help people with certain income bracket (below tax range) for 3 lac yens, 10 thousand yens to most of the households(high income excluded), 20 lac yens to small and medium business and 10 lac yens to personal business owners. The application methods are being ironed out.

Again, Japan going through the procedures thoroughly even in this critical time, declaration is first planned to be presented first in Parliament saying that following two conditions are met(already reached) now and hence we should declare state of emergency.

Two conditions for this emergency declaration

Extreme Threat to life and health of people &
Due to spread of this across the nation there is threat to whole society & economy

Above 1st point is fulfilled and part of second condition. Even though the “across the nation” has still not happened but increase in unknown source does pose that threat. Hence time is right now even though one week earlier would have been fine. At the same time, steepest rise has been seen last week which has severed enough evidence to go ahead on this. A formal press conference will also be hold where PM Abe will formally announce and take press’s questions too.

Critics say that they will not be able to forcefully stop the movement and at the end people have to show maximum restraint. Our view is that, yes, they numbers might not go to a drastically low level, but this symbolic declaration will help everyone in Japan including citizens and business to change their mental gear and help in increased self-restraint. This will also give businesses a formal reason to change the work style from “work at office“ to “work from home” and any other changes. This will serve as a trigger to lot of changes which cannot be done when the things are kept ambiguous in Japan. This will reduce in movement percentage to a level which should show either reverse effect or should stabilize the trend of count of infected people. But this effect will take 2 weeks to show the result due to its incubation time. One will be able to evaluate this completely when we as whole world have come out of this dark tunnel. Is this a good step for Japan ? Yes. Are the steps enough ? No. Can more be done ? Yes.

We hope that the country known for “相手の気持ちを大切にする/相手に迷惑かけない” read as “Aite no Kimochi wo Taisetsu ni suru/Aite ni meiwaku kakenai” meaning “Give utmost importance to other’s feelings/Do not cause hinderance to others” will do it not only for their own lives but also for others. A country which is know wearing mask so that they do not bother others and pass a simple cold will rise to the occasion which is much bigger, serious and calls for least possible movement.

The country where “Method & Process itself is also a delivery and quality” is taking a unique path. Only time will tell how these measures go in the books of history decades from now. One thing is sure, what’s happening now can prove to be a turning point.

Do share it with your friends and family so that they are better prepared and do not have unreasonable expectations/fear from this “state of emergency” in Japan. Also share your thoughts about the whole situation.

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